NUCLEAR PERILS IN SOUTH ASIA
By Tariq Ali

The nuclear games being played by India and Pakistan are
both dangerous and obscene. They are dangerous because there
are Taliban-type elements within the Pakistan Army (and I'm
sure their equivalents in India), who could, in extremis,
press the dreaded button. They are obscene because both
countries are racked by poverty of the most abject sort,
illiteracy, mass unemployment and the lack of basic
amenities for countless millions. The lack of these basic
necessities of life are not considered to be a denial of
'human rights' as far as Western policymakers are concerned,
a view increasingly contested by the young on the streets of
Seattle and Washington. The figures speak for themselves.
Following the nuclear tests of 1998 the Indian government
announced an allocation of 9.9 billion dollars for defence
spending in 1999, an increase of 14 percent on the previous
year.

Pakistan mimicked the increase by 8..5 percent, increasing
its spending to 3.3 billion dollars. South Asia today is one
of the world's most heavily militarised regions. The Indian
ands Pakistani armies form part of the world's ten largest
war machines. There is a 6:1 ratio of soldiers to doctors.
The social costs of arms-spending are horrendous. If nothing
else, the extension of the nuclear race to South Asia should
compel policy-makers in Washington to pause and reflect on
their own policies since the official end of the Cold War.
The fact is that the US military budget remains inflated and
accounts for over a third of the world's expenditure on
armaments. The old enemy no longer exists, but the cold war
scenarios remain in place. US military planners continue to
target Russia and China. The latest wave of NATO expansion,
followed by a Balkan war only hardens Russian opposition to
nuclear disarmament. When NATO patrols the Black Sea what
price the 'Partnership for Peace'? Herein lies the crux of
the problem. Unless the West begins the process of
unilateral nuclear disarmament it has no moral or material
basis to demand that others do the same. It is a twisted
logic that accepts that while London and Paris can have the
bomb, New Delhi and Islamabad, not to mention Seoul and
Pyongyang, can not.

Praful Bidwai and Achin Vanaik are two of India's most
courageous radical journalists. Like others who tell the
truth they are sometimes heaped with ridicule, but they
remain steadfast. They interrogate power and often venture
into dangerous territory. They are immune to the usual
pressures and inducements with which governments East and
West seek to intimidate or bribe journalists.Their new book,
"New Nukes: India, Pakistan and Global Nuclear Disarmament"
should be mandatory reading for policy-makers in New Delhi,
Islamabad and Washington.Amongst the most valuable sections
of "New Nukes" is the account of India's previous stance on
the question of atomic weapons. Jawaharlal Nehru was a firm
believer in nuclear abstinence. 'Coming from a warm
country', he informed the United Nations in 1960, 'I have
shivered occasionally from these cold blasts'. Now the
blasts have overpowered the political elites in India and
Pakistan. Bidwai and Vanaik are for unilateral nuclear
disarmament by both India and Pakistan. For them this is a
moral and a political imperative. The case they make is
unanswerable, but politicians and Generals usually concede
only to mass pressure. Rational arguments leave them
unmoved. The authors complain that the Indian left (India's
two Communist Parties) is part of the problem: "Thus the
socialist bomb has been seen as the progressive weapon
against the imperialist bomb. The adjective has been made
more important than the noun in perverse understanding of
the history and politics of nuclearism.

The left's claim that deterrence has sometimes worked is a
self-serving delusion ." In any event the conflict in the
region is seen by fanatics on both sides as the 'Muslim'
bomb versus the 'Hindu' bomb. The former believe they will
end up in paradise anyway and as for the latter there is
always the hope of reincarnation, but this time in the shape
of ants. Bidwai and Vanaik that unilateral nuclear
disarmament in South Asia should not be seen in a national
context, but as a stepping stone towards global disarmament.
This is an extremely useful book and not just for India. The
projected scenarios in case of nuclear conflict would not
remained confined to South Asia. Nuclear rain is no
respecter of frontiers. It will cripple humans and plants
alike. Western leaders in the grip of a triumphalist fever
appear to have given up on disarmament, blighting the
harvest of hopes that arose briefly during the time of
Gorbachev. It could turn out to be a fatal error.